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Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Touch of Grey: WI-8 Edition

A quick look at the Brown County unofficial vote totals reveals the following:

In the GOP primary there were over 26,000 votes cast. The winner, Reid Ribble, got a little over 14,000 of those.

At the same time, current Congressman Steve Kagen received almost 7500 votes. Keep in mind that this was an uncontested primary and basically meant nothing for Kagen, yet almost 7500 people voted for him. I'd like to believe that these came from people who were motivated to go to the polls in order to vote for Tom Barrett, but that primary was practically non-contested.

That leaves me to conclude that in Brown County there are at least 7400 committed hardcore Democrats who turn out to vote no matter what. Does anyone doubt what a formidable asset such a group can be in a tight general election?

If you combine Roth's 7000 votes with Ribble's it yields a total of about 21,000 or about three times the number of Kagen's votes. Looking at the total number of ballots cast, there were about three times as many Republican ones as Democratic ones.

In other words, WI-8 is still most likely a closely divided electorate, and the general election could all come down to who shows up to vote.

Ribble has remarked on just how hard he has worked up to this point. I'd say now is when the real work begins.

3 comments:

Dale McNamee said...

Congradualtions to Reid Ribble, he won the election. I have my issues with Reid, just as some here had issues with my candidate of choice. But, with the exception of Terri, any candidate on our side is better than Dr. Steve "don't call me Congressmen" Kagen.

Time to rally and move forward.

brvanlanen said...

Great analysis Jeremy. Well said Dale. The focus needs to be on ensuring that Dr. Kagen gets sent back to private practice.

Time to dust off the archives ...

Anonymous said...

I think your point is never underestimate the power of incumbency, even in a "anti incumbent" year. Ribble will need to do it the old fashion way, earn it.