Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Obviously Nancy Nusbaum won easily against fake Democrat Junkermann tonight, but do the Brown County results point to a Nusbaum victory over Senator Cowles next month? The spreadsheet above compares tonight's vote with the vote totals from the Supreme Court recount in May.
As you can see Justice Prosser got 3,400 more votes than Nusbaum could muster in the areas of Brown County that are in the 2nd SD. Prosser, of course, is not a perfect substitute for Cowles. But every vote since last November has been a referendum on Govenor Walker, so the Prosser vote seems like a good proxy.
Also, Nusbaum got about 1,200 fewer votes than Kloppenburg did. Perhaps this is just a result of the normal drop off of intensity during primaries, but this can't be a good sign for the Democrats.
Update - When I put this up last night, I meant to link to the Brown County results but forgot. Here are the results for the 2 SD Dem primary and here are the WI Supreme Court recount results.