Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Comparing Brown County Returns for 2 SD Primary & WI Supreme Court

Click to enlarge.

Obviously Nancy Nusbaum won easily against fake Democrat Junkermann tonight, but do the Brown County results point to a Nusbaum victory over Senator Cowles next month?  The spreadsheet above compares tonight's vote with the vote totals from the Supreme Court recount in May.

As you can see Justice Prosser got 3,400 more votes than Nusbaum could muster in the areas of Brown County that are in the 2nd SD.  Prosser, of course, is not a perfect substitute for Cowles.  But every vote since last November has been a referendum on Govenor Walker, so the Prosser vote seems like a good proxy.

Also, Nusbaum got about 1,200 fewer votes than Kloppenburg did.  Perhaps this is just a result of the normal drop off of intensity during primaries, but this can't be a good sign for the Democrats.

Update - When I put this up last night, I meant to link to the Brown County results but forgot.  Here are the results for the 2 SD Dem primary and here are the WI Supreme Court recount results.


Cindy K. said...

You are such a devoted junkie to have the numbers up so fast. :)

If this, too, is a Walker referendum, wouldn't you expect the final numbers to be mostly the same?

Jeremy R. Shown said...

If Nusbaum can't meet or exceed Kloppenburg's totals, I doubt she can be Cowles.

I'm wondering if there isn't some intensity drop off with evevery new Walker referendum. Of course, it could just be that this was a primary, in the summer, and more people will turn out for the actual election next month.

I think Nusbaum would need an intense GOTV effort (one that wasn't evident in the primary) to try and beat Cowles.

Dad29 said...

Don't forget that UWGB is NOT in session.

Anonymous said...

I'm sure next to no GOTV effort was made. However, the teachers, I am sure, will not be going home to tend their gardens after voting in the real thing. They'll go pull out their Organizing for America purchased blackberry and pull up a seat next to the poll workers. However will they be able to coax out the non-union dem voters?

Dad29 said...

will they be able to coax out the non-union dem voters?

GB has lotsa union members, but it would be a BIG stretch to assume that they're all in favor of WEA's Privileged Few.

The Recess Supervisor said...

UWGB isn't anywhere near the Cowles district. It's in the far northeast corner of the 88th AD. If you had a football and a good arm, you could stand on the UWGB campus and chuck the ball into Garey Bies' district.

What the UWGB kids *will* miss out on is a chance to pad Dave Hansen's margin of victory next Tuesday.