$275M Brown County budget plan calls for 3.85% spending increase

The overall $275.2 million spending plan is a little more than a week from its final review and vote by the County Board. Although the tax levy will be center stage, several fiscal and policy proposals are included in the document that would increase spending by 3.85 percent, or $3.2 million.

The spending plan, crafted by Brown County Executive Tom Hinz, includes a proposed 6.21 percent tax levy increase. Hinz's budget proposal would require $87.4 million in property taxes. That's a 3.85 percent levy hike over the 2010 budget, but combined with a 2.2 percent drop in the county's equalized property value kicks the overall levy increase over 6 percent.

via greenbaypressgazette.com

Posted via email from rhymeswithclown's posterous

Steve Kagen Confused on the Issues

Last night there was a debate between the candidates for Wisconsin's 8th Congressional District. At least two of the answers lead me to believe Democrat Steve Kagen was either confused or trying to confuse people. Neither of which is a good quality in a member of Congress.

First, on a question about spending cuts, Kagen touted the cuts to Defense that Secretary Gates recently announced. The only problem is that Gates was merely proposing that the Pentagon shift its spending to where it makes the most sense, not that they actually spend less. Here's what I wrote about these cuts back in August:

Defense Secretary Robert Gates has undertaken an effort to reform the Pentagon's budget. Praise came swiftly, but has been somewhat tempered the last few days. NPR had a story about how taxpayers won't see any benefit, at least not anytime soon, from Gates' plan. This was due to the fact that the cuts will come from programs that the Pentagon thinks are no longer necessary, but the savings will be redirected into programs that the Pentagon thinks are necessary.

Spending money wisely is an excellent idea, but it is not the same as a cut in spending.

Next, during a question on job creation, Kagen said, "costs are going up. We've got mild inflation." I'm sure this would come as news to liberal economist and Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman.

The Consumer Price Index for the 12 months ended in September was only 1.1%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports, "[o]ver the last 12 months, the index for all items less food and energy rose 0.8 percent, the lowest 12-month increase since March 1961."

And from the New York Times:

In framing his cautious arguments for additional Fed action, Mr. Bernanke said inflation (about half of the implicit target of “about 2 percent or a bit below”) was “too low”

So if Kagen can't recognize the fact that we aren't experiencing inflation currently, will he be able to recognize the real thing? Being able to do so could be critical since the Fed is about to embark on a program of money creation explicitly designed to increase the inflation rate.

The PIMCO Outlook

Bill Gross runs one of the world's biggest mutual funds.  He's also anything but bullish on our collective situation.  On politics:

PIMCO - Run Turkey Run November 2010

Democrat or Republican, Elephant or Donkey, nothing much ever seems to change. Each party has shown it can add hundreds of billions of dollars to the national debt with little to show for it or move our military from one country to the next chasing phantoms instead of focusing on more serious problems back home. This isn’t a choice between chocolate and vanilla folks, it’s all rocky road: a few marshmallows to get you excited before the election, but with a lot of nuts to ruin the aftermath.

And on the Fed's plan for asset purchases, QEII, which Gross calls "cheque writing:

Still, while next Wednesday’s announcement will carry our qualified endorsement, I must admit it may be similar to a Turkey looking forward to a Thanksgiving Day celebration. Bondholders, while immediate beneficiaries, will likely eventually be delivered on a platter to more fortunate celebrants, be they financial asset classes more adaptable to inflation such as stocks or commodities, or perhaps the average American on Main Street who might benefit from a hoped-for rise in job growth or simply a boost in nominal wages, however deceptive the illusion. Cheque writing in the trillions is not a bondholder’s friend; it is in fact inflationary, and, if truth be told, somewhat of a Ponzi scheme. Public debt, actually, has always had a Ponzi-like characteristic.

He ends with a pitch about PIMCO staying one step ahead of the game so I'm tempted to chalk this up as nothing more than a salesman using fear as a motivational tactic.  Something tells me though he might be on to something.

Ron Kind - Working Hard for Lobbyists

Wisconsin's own Ron Kind is key part of the New Democrat coalition.  Apparently, Kind is well aware of where his bread is buttered, and it isn't the dairy state.

The New Democrats: The Coalition Pharma and Wall Street Love - ProPublica

At a Saturday session at the retreat, Rep. Kind acknowledged what had brought the lobbyists and lawmakers together. In these busy legislative times, he said, the New Democrats had become a "powerful voice in policy making," and the business interests in the room were playing a crucial role in informing that voice.

"We're working hard with you to get the policy right," Kind told lobbyists for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and others.

Be sure to remember this the next time someone complains about the anonymous money sources of the Chamber of Commerce.  It's also important to note that the New Democrats developed their money raising muscle before Citizens United.

Beyond that, the entire story is a depressing narrative of just how bad the performance by our Congress is.  It details how industry groups use money to gain access and access to shape the laws of the nation, the ones that affect you and me, to suit their own purposes.  Remember now, these are the New Democrats, and their exploits seem eerily similar to the Jack Abramoff era of GOP dominance.

I think it would be great if we really did throw all the bums out, but I doubt it will happen.

WI-08 Steve Kagen Trailing in Daily Kos Poll

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 10/23-24. Likely voters. MoE 2.6% (No trend lines)

Reid Ribble (R) 40
Steve Kagen (D) 37

Even though this is a close race -- just three points separate Ribble and Kagen -- the fact that nearly one in four voters are undecided isn't good news for Kagen, who was first elected in 2006. The reason for the high undecided totals is that likely voters are unfamiliar with either candidate. A total of 42 percent say that they have neither a favorable nor unfavorable impression of Kagen and 48 percent are neutral about Ribble. In the Senate race, by contrast, more than 90 percent of likely voters are familiar enough with both candidates to have formed an impression.

via jedreport.com

On my way out and wanted to post this quick. There are results on other races as well at the link.

Posted via email from rhymeswithclown's posterous

Hey MoveOn.org! This is my Blog.

This blog is not paid for by the corporate front groups and the oil billionaires who are trying to buy this election. This is my blog, made by one hardworking American who lives right here in Wisconsin and has one simple message for anyone who happens to read it: Congressman Steve Kagen clearly does not reflect the values that I, and many of my neighbors, hold dear.

Reid Ribble, on the other hand does share many of those values. That is why I will be voting for him on November 2nd.

In case you hadn't heard, MoveOn has moved in to WI-8. (H/T Todd Lohenry on Twitter)

Confidence vs. Certainty

The other day I said that I didn't think good economic policy revolved around creating confidence. I got a few questions on that, so I want to put a finer point on it.

The government should strive to achieve the greatest amount of certainty that it can while maintaining some flexibility to react to conditions in an unpredictable world. They should do this primarily in the areas over which they have explicit control, with federal taxes, spending, and regulatory regimes topping the list.

Efforts to create confidence too quickly devolve into the notion that the government will come to the rescue when times are tough. There may be times when government intervention is appropriate, but this sphere has a way of expanding seemingly without end.

Greenspan's confidence building contributed to the tech stock bubble and various federal interventions in housing, including Freddie and Fannie, played a role in the housing bubble and subsequent mess.

No Way to Run a Country

TaxVox: the Tax Policy Center blog :: The Biggest Tax Policy Mistake of the Year

Will our leaders really allow the alternative minimum tax to hit 27 million taxpayers this year, a whopping 23 million more than in 2009? Did the estate tax really expire back in January, making 2010 the year without an estate tax? Will companies really receive no tax credits for their investments in research and development?

Under existing law, the answer to each of these questions is yes... But in today’s world, existing law doesn’t mean much until Congress throws in the legislative towel. The upcoming lame-duck session will thus feature healthy debate about patching the AMT, retroactively resuscitating the estate tax and extending a host of expired business tax credits — all policies that would determine 2010 taxes.

Such retroactive policymaking is an embarrassment. In a well-functioning democracy, policymakers should establish the laws of the land in advance so that families and businesses can knowledgeably plan their activities.

I don't believe that good economic policy involves creating "confidence" but I do believe people need to be able to understand the rules of the game. Is it really too much to ask of the current Congress to make the rules clear?

Reid Ribble and the Stimulus

The latest dust-up in the race for Wisconsin's 8th Congressional District revolves around the fact that Reid Ribble's family roofing business performed work for the Kaukauna school district that was paid for by money from the stimulus package. Apparently, Steve Kagen and the Democratic campaign machine see this as a problem since candidate Ribble has been critical of the stimulus.

The reporting on the issue has revolved around time-lines and whether the figures for the amount received are accurate. If you want to read the details for yourself, check out Politicfact Wisconsin, but this misses the point.

If you are a businessman in the business of providing roofing services to institutions like school districts and your local school district needs a roof, wouldn't it make sense for you to put in a bid on that work regardless of how the school district pays for it? Personally, I think the school taxes where I live are too high but if I was in the roofing business, and my school district needed a roof, I wouldn't refuse to bid just because they are using my tax dollars to pay for the roof.

Once Steve Kagen voted for the stimulus and it became law, who would be served by a qualified local contracting firm not bidding on work funded by the stimulus? Not the people of WI-8, not the citizens of Kaukauna, and certainly not the employees of the Ribble family roofing business.

If you think taxes are too high or the stimulus was a bad idea what do you think the best way to respond is? By having your company avoid doing work it is qualified for or by getting involved in the political process to affect change where it really matters? In this case Reid Ribble chose the latter, and he didn't just write a check, make some phone calls, or write a blog post. He got involved in the biggest way possible, as a candidate. And if you don't think that represents a major commitment, just turn on the television for five minutes and count the attack ads.

This entire issue is a ridiculous distraction from the fact that our current congressman, Steve Kagen, voted for the stimulus bill and it hasn't produced the results promised. The future is uncertain and solutions from Kagen and the Democrats in Washington are in short supply. What's going on at Ribble Roofing won't impact the lives of most voters in WI-8, but the makeup of the next Congress will.

The Mortgage Interest Deduction is not Progressive

Last week I argued Russ Feingold's defense of the mortgage interest deduction (MID) didn't square with his reputation for being progressive. Worse was the fact that he could bolster this reputation by advocating to end the Bush tax cuts on the highest income earners even while he argued for the mortgage interest deduction, which disproportionately helps the wealthy.

Dean, for one, wasn't buying it. Here is what he said in the comments:

Increasing the marginal tax rate is clearly more progressive. I seems

ridiculous to me that you are basically saying Feingold is not progressive enough. Who are you trying to snow?

That's not basically what I am saying, Dean. That is exactly what I am saying. No snow about it. But don't take my word for it. Here's the Tax Policy Center (which is a joint venture of Brookings and The Urban Institute) pdf:

The MID disproportionately benefits taxpayers in the top fifth of the income distribution (Toder, Harris, and Lim 2009). Those who do not itemize deductions on their tax returns receive no benefit and the subsidy rate is larger for individuals in higher marginal tax rate brackets. Because most who benefit would own homes without the deduction, it mostly provides an incentive to live in more expensive homes, not to own instead of rent.

I'm not hopeful for a renewal in America if neither our citizens nor our legislators are able to acknowledge the practical results of this country's policies. It's one thing for the average citizen to be unaware of this state of affairs. For a US Senator who claims to be a progressive, not realizing this seems more like malpractice.

The Tea Party Won't Split the GOP

Another week and another round of groping to define the Tea Party and to divine its role for the future both within the GOP and beyond. Just when Dad29 has me thinking that maybe we are close to a viable third party, liberal blogger Matthew Yglesias writes this on his blog while discussing the Paul/Conway race in Kentucky:

Accusing one’s opponent of transferring economic opportunities from the United States to China (sometimes India) is a major feature of a huge number of 2010 campaigns. These attacks tend to be factually misleading, and also promote the widespread by definitely wrong misconception that the US and China are engaged in a zero-sum contest for prosperity. What’s more, even granting the factual and analytic premises of these ads their ethics is clearly mistaken. If it was the case that the US and China face zero-sum competition for economic resources, transferring resources from rich America to poor China would be morally praiseworthy.

He gets it almost right. Those accusations about transferring opportunities to China are a major feature of Democratic campaigns in 2010. Wisconsin's own Steve Kagen and Russ Feingold have been beating this drum incessantly.

Yglesias is, generally speaking, to the left of the Democratic mainstream, but not that far left. And yet I'd bet he approves of the congressional voting records of both Steve Kagen and Russ Feingold.

So what does this have to do with the Tea Party and the GOP? If the shrill China-bashing of Kagen and Feingold can exist in the same party with Yglesias and his "morally praiseworthy" transfers to China, then is there any division within a party that can't be reconciled?

In fact, I wonder if the current political environment won't result in retrenchment of the two major parties as activists, both new and long-time, work to reform their respective parties from the ground up.

Can Congress Constrain Its Future Self?

The short answer appears to be no.

Dems Set Lame-Duck Vote on Extra Social Security Payment - Blog - OpenCongress

On Friday, Speaker Nancy Pelosi [D, CA-8] announced that she was scheduling a vote on the Seniors Protection Act of 2010, which would give a one-time payment of $250 to social security recipients who are struggling in the recession economic downturn.

Pelosi’s announcement came on the heels of an announcement from the Social Security Administration that, for the second year in a row, seniors on social security will not be receiving a cost of living adjustment (COLA) in 2010. Since the Social Security Amendments Act passed by Congress in 1975, payments have been calculated automatically based on a formula using a 12-month view of the Consumer Price Index in order to keep pace with the rate of inflation. The CPI has been on a very steady increase for decades, but when the recession hit it tanked and it’s still below its peak level of July 2008. The COLA formula is designed to automatically block increases until the CPI is above its former peak. Therefore, no increase in payments. This is not an act of the 111th Congress, it’s an effect of actions taken by the 94th Congress, which, by the way, was controlled by the Democrats in both chambers.

Please keep this in mind around 2018 when the tax on high cost health plans is supposed to kick which are supposed to help pay for the Obama health reform.

Steve Kagen - Accusations of Dishonesty

"Dishonest" is a word that comes up in many of the responses to Steve Kagen's attack ads.  Here are two recent recent examples.  First from The Weekly Standard:

In Wisconsin, Congressman Steve Kagen Runs on Dishonesty

John McCormack highlights three Wisconsin House races that are ripe for a Democrat-to-Republican flip. In WI-08, Republican Reid Ribble is challenging Democrat Steve Kagen, a doctor whose most notable moment in Washington came when he seems to have invented a confrontation in a White House bathroom with Karl Rove.

The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel editorial board, known for its liberalism, said at the time that it was hard to know what parts of the story were true because Kagen “apparently was making much of it up.” The paper said the incident raised questions about Kagen’s “judgment and maturity.”

Kagen also raised eyebrows by saying that he was running on “Injun time” during his campaign, something that would have caused a national outcry if it had come from a Republican. But Kagen got a pass.

And this from The Underground Conservative:

The Dishonest Dr. Millionaire

In other words, Kagen’s people are so incompetent they can’t even use a still of the correct article from the newspaper, plus they are so dishonest they can’t even reference the material honestly.

More Evidence that Russ Feingold Doesn't Get It

In late August as Feingold and Ron Johnson sparred over the mortgage interest deduction, I wrote this over at Fox Politics.net:

Looking at these facts, I guess one could argue that Feingold is in favor of perpetuating tax loopholes that disproportionately benefit upper-bracket taxpayers.

I was being a bit facetious in an attempt to make a point. I don't really believe that Russ Feingold is actively trying to benefit the wealthy. But by now, I haven't seen anything from Feingold to make me believe he's seen the error of his ways. In fact, I'm beginning to wonder if he can even recognize the reality of our current situation.

Here he is in a recent interview:

So, my view is we should not be continuing the tax cuts for upper-income people. We can't afford it we couldn't afford it then, we can't afford it now. Those tax cuts clearly have not provided the job growth that they claim it will do so. Why would people argue that it should continue? The middle class tax cuts are something far more legitimate that working families in this country deserve and need at this point.

And here's a new post by Howard Gleckman of the non-partisan Tax Policy Center (my bold):

Thus, those Bush-era tax cuts did play a part in boosting after tax-incomes for high-earners. But for the most part, those folks got rich thanks to the money they made, not from the taxes they saved.

And remember that President Obama’s proposal to extend the tax cuts for income under $200,000 (or $250,00 for couples) would still increase after-tax incomes for the highest earners by about 2 percent--relative to all the tax cuts expiring....

But keep in mind that the CBO calculations show the direct impact of tax payments (as well as federal income transfers such as Social Security) on income. They exclude a potentially more important factor—how the tax laws helped high-earners make their money in the first place. For instance, a lot of folks got very rich in the real estate business over this period—an industry fueled by tax subsidies. And few politicians are talking about addressing those tax code issues.

Feingold is one of the few politicians talking about tax subsidies like the mortgage interest deduction. The only problem is he is fiercely protecting it!

Feingold is apparently counting on the fact that arguing to increase taxes on the wealthy makes for a good sound bite and that voters won't think it through. The fact of the matter is that the wealthy will still benefit from the lower tax rates on income less than $250,000 and they will still benefit from tax expenditures like the mortgage interest deduction, which Feingold has basically taken off the table when it comes to fixing this nation's broken tax system.

I'll say again that ending the mortgage interest deduction would be a major upheaval, and is not to be taken lightly, but you can't have a serious conversation about taxes without considering it.

For someone who promotes himself as a Senator who champions the common man over the wealthy, during this campaign Feingold seems to be advocating policies that do just the opposite. He seems to be doing so out of ignorance and not malice, but that's of little comfort to the voters of Wisconsin.

Why Politicians Can’t Compromise

The problem in congress is that though policy is a positive-sum game where it’s possible for people with sharply divergent viewpoints to forge compromises, electoral politics is a zero-sum competition for seats. Historically, members of congress were subjected to weak party discipline and thought of themselves primarily as entrepreneurial figures charged with cutting deals with one another to advance their own interests. But we’ve shifted in recent years to a different paradigm in which discipline is tighter and lawmakers—especially on the Republican side—see themselves as footsoldiers in the battle for majority control. That becomes a game in which there’s very little incentive for anyone to compromise, so you don’t see a ton of compromising happening.

via yglesias.thinkprogress.org

That's Matthew Yglesias. And despite his clumsy attempt to make a partisan point in the midst of an insightful observation, I still think he's mostly right about this.

There seem to be some on the left who bemoan the lack of progress on their desired agenda and are jealous of the relatively strict discipline of the GOP, but is it really all it appears to be?

As a GOP voter, I'm certainly not interested in a party that marches in lock-step toward massive amounts of spending, even if it means the much sought after permanent Republican majority.

We basically had this from 1994-2006 and the hangover from it, I believe, is one of the main factors animating the Tea Party.

Posted via email from rhymeswithclown's posterous

Letters to the Editor on Steve Kagen

The letter traffic on Congressman Steve Kagen (D-WI-8) has picked up and while he has had his supporters, there have been quite a few detailing the unhappiness that many people in the area feel with his representation.

Here are quotes from two such letters. Be sure to click on the links to read the entire letter.

Kagen-Ribble debate reveals information

I look forward to providing Ribble an opportunity to represent the 8th District constituents. We sadly need to change from a congressman who has voted with the Democrats nearly all of the time rather than supporting his district, to a man with practical business experience and the ability to hold the line on spending, reduce the deficit and be honest with those he represents.

Ronald Blickhahn,

Candidates should run on record

Kagen is now a two-term congressman running for a third. Kagen proudly voted for the stimulus (an expensive failure) and government regulation of our health care. He also voted for cap-and-trade, which would impose heavy taxes on individuals and businesses (a real job killer), and would, in President Barack Obama's words — necessarily bankrupt the coal companies and caused energy bills to "skyrocket." Even though Kagen's ad tarring Ribble with the "he wants to take away your social security" brush is called dishonest by both the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and The (Appleton) Post-Crescent, he continued to repeat it. This scare tactic is pulled out every election.

Kristine Meulemans

Reihan Salam for OMB Director

So here is the grand bargain: let’s focus on wasteful, duplicative, ineffective, and unwarranted spending first, reduce tax expenditures second, and then and only then consider raising the overall tax burden. I sense that the first task will keep us busy for a long time.  

via nationalreview.com

Regardless of what you thought of Grand New Party, I'd say this is a blueprint for reforming the size of the federal government that any conservative could get behind.

Also, since the OMB is such a big part of carrying out the Executive Branch mission, why doesn't the choice of a director get more attention? Are presidential candidates ever asked about their vision for an OMB director?

Posted via email from rhymeswithclown's posterous

Reid Ribble Answers Steve Kagen's Attacks

The late Wisconsin primary spared us from a long season of campaign attack ads, but as soon as the primaries were through, Democrat Steve Kagen and his allies in Big Labor launched a furious series of attack ads. The intensity of the attacks, I think, took a lot of people by surprise.

It's too bad that's what many people will remember, despite the fact that Kagen's main claim against GOP opponent Reid Ribble has since been found to be nothing but a fabrication.

Ribble is fighting back with a new ad of his own:

AFSCME Giveth and the DCCC Taketh Away

In the race for WI-8, the players lining up behind vulnerable incumbent Steve Kagen are changing fast. First, the DCCC is cutting back on it's support:

DCCC Throws in Towel on 4 Races It Thought It Could Win

The DCCC also cut its ad spending for Arizona Rep. Harry Mitchell and Wisconsin Rep. Steve Kagen, who look like they’re going down, too.

But a major labor group is stepping in to the gap:

AFSCME Invests Big in Wisconsin House Race - The Center for Public Integrity

AFSCME, the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees labor union, is spending a whopping $750,000 on a 30-second ad in Wisconsin’s 8th Congressional District race — more than either candidate has spent since the start of the 2010 campaign cycle, according to AFSCME filings with the Federal Election Commission.

The next time someone on the left starts whining about Citizens United, please remind them that here in the 8th, AFSCME is outspending the candidates themselves.

If you happen to be a voter in WI-8, you might want to ask yourself why AFSCME thinks enough of Kagen to spend this kind of money here.  If re-elected, would Kagen be beholden to AFSCME?

My advice to the Ribble camp, between now and November don't believe for even a minute that you have the election wrapped up.  Kagen still has a dedicated group of supporters that will make this election tough regardless of the national political mood.

Protecting Incumbents -UAW Edition

The Growing Divide Between Rich and Poor UAW Members: General Motors has struck a deal with a UAW local requiring that only 60 percent of workers building the new subcompact Aveo be paid the traditional $28 an hour. The rest will make "Tier 2" wages "equal to roughly half that of so-called legacy workers."

The wage agreement is expected to reduce GM's labor costs enough that the automaker can make a profit on the small car, [UAW local shop chairman Mike] Dunn said.

“It's an integral part of the plan,” he said.

Hmm. a) This reinforces the suspicion that the UAW is now in the business of exploiting new workers in order to maintain the unsustainable wages and benefits of the now-privileged "legacy" workers.

via newsweek.com

This strikes me as a variant on Adam Smith's notion that men of the same trade can seldom meet except to conspire against the public or raise prices. Only in this case, it's those new UAW workers bearing the cost.

The real big three in the country are Labor, Government, and Business. Don't be fooled by the labels, they all seem to be in the same trade these days.

Posted via email from rhymeswithclown's posterous

The Fed as a Profit Center

Federal revenues rose nearly 3 percent from fiscal year 2009 to FY2010. But virtually the whole increase came from higher corporate income taxes and a more than doubling of Federal Reserve earnings. Preliminary data in the Congressional Budget Office’s October Monthly Budget Review reveal that revenue climbed $57 billion to $2.16 trillion in the fiscal year that ended last month (see graph). Combined with a $67 billion fall in outlays, that revenue gain cut the federal deficit by $125 billion to a still astronomical $1.3 trillion, or 8.9 percent of GDP. Bad as that is, it’s well below 2009’s deficit of 10 percent of GDP.

via taxvox.taxpolicycenter.org

It's like we all work for a huge conglomerate that has as its main business a giant hedge fund that can also print its own money.

Posted via email from rhymeswithclown's posterous

Steve Kagen's Confused Attack Ads

I guess when you launch as many attack ads as Democrat Steve Kagen (WI-8) does, it's hard to keep them straight.

I've heard Kagen tell me that GOP opponent Reid Ribble wants to ship jobs to China and that he wants to let illegal immigrants into the country to take our jobs.

Well, if he ships the jobs to China first, then there won't be any for the illegals to take. And if he lets the illegals in first, the jobs that get shipped to China won't be ours.

Kagen's all-out attacks are nothing more than a desperate attempt to hold on to power and have little basis in fact. Voters beware.

Taxes Alone Don't Tell the Whole Story

During tonight's debate between Steve Kagen and Reid Ribble, Kagen made the point that taxes are the lowest they've been since 1950. He held up an article from USA Today trumpeting this news. While this makes for a great debate soundbite, it doesn't begin to offer a complete picture of the fiscal state of the country.

The trick is that there is something that is a very close substitute for taxes: debt.

So while Kagen may want to trumpet the historically low tax bill, I doubt he will be reminding us anytime soon that the national debt in 2010 was six times larger than it was in 1950.

Annual budget deficits tell much the same story. In 1950 the deficit was 0.43% of GDP, in 2010 it was almost 11%. In 2006, prior to the financial crisis, the deficit was 1.85% of GDP, or about four times what it was in 1950.

Substituting debt for taxes allows politicians to tell you they've lowered taxes even while they keep spending on all the programs that are near and dear to the hearts of important constituencies.

Republicans are not innocent in all this. Many of them were deluded by the idea that low taxes would shrink the size of government, the so-called "starve the beast" strategy. The only trouble was that the beast didn't just eat taxes, it also liked to eat debt.

In the end it really is all about the spending. Whether we pay for that spending today through taxes or in the future through debt is a secondary question. Voters need to be vigilant against headlines that sound great, but give a distorted picture of the reality Americans face. Especially when promoted by politicians seeking re-election.

Kagen Ribble Debate Tonight

Candidates for Wisconsin's 8th Congressional District will debate tonight. Here are the details from FoxPolitics.net:

7:00 PM , Thursday, October 7
St. Norbert College
Abbot Pennings Hall of Fine Arts
Byron L. Walter Theatre
316 Third St (at College Avenue), De Pere

Pre-Debate Rally for Ribble supporters. Call or e-mail Kerry for details. 920-499-4000.

My wife has a standing commitment on the first Thursday of the month, so I will not be able to attend., but I still have options to get informed and so do you!

From WLUK Fox 11:

It will be streamed live at fox11online.com and broadcast Saturday, Oct. 9 at 7 p.m. on FOX 11. In addition, viewers can participate in a live chat on fox11online.com during the debate on Oct. 7. Video of the debate and a transcript of the live chat will be archived at fox11online.com.

At the WLUK link you can also read a transcript of a live chat where people suggested questions for the debate.

When It Really Counts Steve Kagen Votes with Nancy Pelosi

Like many of us who are unhappy with Congressman Steve Kagen I've been quick to tie him to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, since I don't believe she and her views are in line with the people of WI-8.

I read something today, though, that gave me pause. The OpenCongress blog noted that many marginal Democrats are being targeted by the GOP with a campaign to tie their voting records to Nancy Pelosi's. The only problem is that this record can get inflated by lots of meaningless votes, things like naming post offices and congratulating sports teams. They argue that when you take these votes out of the mix, some of these Democrats don't appear to be as in-line with Pelosi.

OpenCongress.org is a source for information on legislation and legislators. It is dedicated to transparency in government and has a dedication to the facts rather than a partisan agenda.

OpenCongress also provides a tool to address the question of these meaningless votes. It is a head to head comparison of legislators using only votes on substantive legislation. So I ran the numbers for Steve Kagen and Nancy Pelosi.

When you look at just the votes on substantive legislation, Steve Kagen votes with Nancy Pelosi 96% of the time.

For some people, this may be a positive. I believe that the majority of voters in WI-8 find this really disappointing.

Today in Yglesias Blogging

It just so happens that on many policy matters liberal blogger Matthew Yglesias and I hold opposing viewpoints. But it is also true that he is a smart guy who really knows how to write a blog, so it's not surprising that many of the things I read on his blog I find thought provoking. Two such items caught my eye today.

First, Yglesias on health care:

David Leonhardt has a great column laying out how a lot of the scare stories you’re reading about “unintended consequences” of the Affordable Care Act are in fact intended consequences. For example, instead of getting incredibly terrible and useless health insurance, in the future McDonalds workers will have access to a better insurance program.

Faced with the possibility of McDonald's and other employers dropping plans that don't meet new coverage minimums all together, the Obama administration relented and has issued a waiver from the rules.

In 2014 these employees may be covered by insurance which is subsidized by the government. Now for Yglesias, this may undoubtedly represent "better" insurance. For me, this is still a long way off and a lot of the details have yet to be demonstrated. It's not as if this administration has a great track record of delivering on the promises used to sell their policy initiatives (see also, stimulus).

I'll also quickly note that there is a certain irony that the side of the political spectrum known for diversity is also the side most wedded to the idea of one-size-fits-all health insurance.

Here's Yglesias on Congress:

Among other things, this congress passes a comprehensive overhaul of student loans. It also mandated calorie labeling on chain restaurant menus nationwide. It created a pool of community transformation grants to help municipalities reconfigures their infrastructure in a more public health-friendly way. In fact, those things were all in a single bill. The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, an act whose major changes are in totally different areas. Plus there were all these other bills!

You can like the 111th Congress or you can dislike it, but there’s just no way to deny that it did a lot more stuff than the four or five congresses before it. That said, I’m not really sure how people are supposed to know about all this since the incumbents responsible for a lot of this sweeping change to come seem almost embarrassed to talk about it at times.

It really shouldn't come as any surprise that incumbents don't want to talk about these things since they are incredibly unpopular. We've got nearly 10% unemployment and the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, meanwhile our military is engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan. Was there a single American voter who thought that what this country needs right now is calorie labeling at chain restaurants?

This really hits close to home since my own Congressman, Steve Kagen, is a stone cold Nancy Pelosi acolyte and can't seem to string together two sentences without the phrases, "end of Social Security," "shipping jobs to China," or a vague threat involving, "Wall Street." Not a word about his vote for the health reform or his vote in favor of Cap and Trade.

Having said all that, I really enjoy the blog Matt. If you are ever in Green Bay let me know and I'll take you to Kroll's, just don't ask me how many calories there are in the burgers.

Kagen Doesn't Know Where Wall Street Is

I'm up at Fox Politics.net.

I would argue that no Wall Street corporation is yet able to fine you for not buying their products – but Kagen, along with President Obama and the Democratic Congress, found a way to make that a reality through the health reform's individual mandate.

Public Employee Pension Reform

RealClearMarkets - The False Obstacles to Pension Reform

Across the country, pension actuaries are coming to state legislatures and calling for an increase in pension contribution rates, which is needed to shore up the funds since they have lost so much value. For example, New York City's pension costs have risen over the last decade from approximately $1 billion per year to $8 billion, and will soon reach $10 billion. In response, many states are acting to reduce costs, by trimming future benefits and requiring employees to pay more. 16 states enacted pension reforms in 2008 and 2009, and at least five more have followed in 2010.

Yet, with the key exception of Utah, states have shied away from following private firms' lead and abandoning defined benefit. (84% of state and local employees retain defined benefit coverage, compared to 21% of private sector workers.) Even in New Jersey, where Governor Chris Christie is proposing reforms that are sweeping relative to what is being done in most other states, the proposed reform package maintains the essential defined-benefit nature of employee retirement benefits.

This is a concern, because the problems with defined-benefit pensions aren't a one-time fluke caused by a bad recession and a stock market crash. Their flaw, especially in the public sector, is structural: they involve lawmakers making promises today about payments the state will make decades from now. There is a strong incentive to offer extra retirement benefits instead of extra cash compensation, because the cost can be pushed off into the future. And because the actuarial math is so complicated and subjective, analysts and legislators have trouble figuring out how much pension benefits really cost.

An excellent discussion of the problem by Josh Barro including debunking some of the reasons not to act.

I just wanted to add that he is thinking too small when when it comes to lawmakers making promises today regarding payments in the future.  That's not just the structural problem with our public pensions.  It lies at the heart of the entire modern entitlement state.

H/T Reihan Salam

Rep. Steve Kagen votes party line with Democrats

That's why everyone should not only vote for Reid Ribble to replace Kagen, but also pull the Republican lever across the board in November. This is a large protest vote against a party that doesn't represent the people who voted them into office. What a waste of hope and change.

Todd English,

Appleton

via postcrescent.com

That's from a letter to the Post Crescent. Visit the link to read the whole thing. You can also check out the comments section.

Posted via email from rhymeswithclown's posterous

When Will Google Translate Speak Steve Kagen?

I hear that Google Translate now does Latin. That's neat, but I'd be really impressed if they could tell me what my congressman, Steve Kagen means by this:

FOX 11 asked Kagen, "Why did you vote for Congress to take a break?" Kagen replied: "To make sure we can get something done here at home and also in Washington. In Washington it's the United States Senate where one senator can put a finger on a bill and stop the show."

Huh? He had to vote to adjourn so he could, "get something done here at home and also in Washington." And can someone explain to me exactly how the United States Senate is responsible in whole or part for a single vote that Steve Kagen has cast in the United States House of Representatives?

If you are even a casual reader of this blog, you know that I am no fan of Kagen, but I try (really, I do) to keep to the issues. Nonsense statements like these from a member of congress who represents me makes it very hard to do so however.